Laidlaw Reiterates Buy Rating on EyePoint (EYPT) with $50 Price Target

As EYPT is about to report its first pivotal study of Duravyu in wet AMD (LUGANO) results later this month, we believe it is useful to provide our assessment of the potential outcome and implications of this study. We believe there is a high likelihood (85+%) that the LUGANO study will meet its primary endpoint of non-inferiority to aflibercept 2mg Q8W. We also believe Duravyu can demonstrate clinically, and potentially commercially meaningful, reduction in treatment burden based on the makeup of the enrolled patients (75+% treatment naïve). Together, given the current lower EYPT share price ($12.28/share intraday), we estimate a robust LUGANO study readout could potentially boost share value to upper $20s or more. One of the key metrics for handicapping the LUGANO and later LUCIA study outcomes is carefully examining all aspects of the DAVIO 2 study. We start with baseline characteristics of patients enrolled in the DAVIO 2 and two pivotal studies of mean change in BCVA and CST from baseline. The results suggested that eligible patients of the Phase III study exhibited stable vision (BCVA) across the two study arms and overall, not derived from DAVIO 2 study patients. This also can be said for anatomic outcomes regarding stable CST with no sawtooth pattern. Since there was a higher portion (~76%) of treatment-naïve patient enrolled in the LUGANO and LUCIA trials, patients that meet supplemental treatment criteria would be lower than that of the prior DAVIO 2 study. We believe it is important to provide a perspective on current discussions of non-inferiority and superiority outcome of the long acting TKI in wet-AMD development space. We believe the most important feature is what comparator being used for measuring non-inferiority or superiority. We believe both LUGANO and LUCIA trials are on solid ground as the tested treatment of these studies is to compare to a current SOC used in the real world. The potential success of these two studies could afford a reality-based comparison that is rooted in physicians’ practice that they can more easily to consider adopting. We are reiterating our Buy rating and $50 target price.

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